Tech Leaderism

Gartner Hype Cycle

The Gartner Hype Cycle is a model that helps visualize how emerging technologies progress through different stages of public perception and maturity. It illustrates how enthusiasm often precedes understanding, and how true value only emerges after initial disillusionment.

It follows five key phases:

1. Innovation Trigger - A breakthrough or proof of concept captures attention. There are few usable products, but excitement begins.

2. Peak of Inflated Expectations - Media coverage and marketing drive exaggerated hopes. Early successes are overhyped, while failures are ignored.

3. Trough of Disillusionment - Reality sets in. Implementations fail, investors pull back, and public interest fades.

4. Slope of Enlightenment - Lessons from earlier failures lead to realistic improvements and clearer business cases.

5. Plateau of productivity - Mainstream adoption starts to take off.

Take generative AI as example. In 2023, tools like ChatGPT triggered massive hype, promises of automation, creativity and transformation reached the peak of inflated expectations. Many organizations rushed in without clear use cases, leading to disappointment when results fell short. Now, the industry is entering the slope of enlightenment, where more focused applications such as code assistants, customer support bots and document summarization are delivering tangible productivity gains.

The Gartner Hype Cycle is less about predicting winners and more about managing expectations and timing adoption wisely. Smart leaders use it to decide when to experiment and when to scale.

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